Recently, research firm TrendForce pointed out that the first quarter of 2022 smartphone production performance is more weak, global production only reached 310 million units, down 12.8 percent quarter on quarter. In contrast to the aggressive positioning of many brands as Huawei ceded market share from the same period last year, production was also down 10.1% annually.

Looking into the second quarter, in the face of the high inflation aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine war and the direct impact of China's lockdown, the consumption momentum continues to be weakened. TrendForce currently observed that it is estimated that the global intelligent production of the second quarter is about 309 million, which is about the same as that of the first quarter, but it still does not exclude the possibility of downward revision in the subsequent quarter.

TrendForce said the impact of the war with Ukraine would be felt in the second quarter. Samsung, Russia's largest brand, joined sanctions against Russia in March this year and suspended all shipments, and the global high inflation crisis will dampen Samsung's production performance in the second quarter, which is expected to decline from the first quarter.

On Apple (Apple), TrendForce pointed out that the iPhone 13 series continued to sell well and the new machine SE3 assist, Apple in the first quarter of production of 60 million, the achievement of the best performance over the same period of the year, the annual growth of 11.1%, mainly to undertake the transfer from Huawei (Huawei) high-level machine, At the same time also make up for Russia under the war to suspend the export of mobile phone losses. However, since Apple's second quarter was in the transition period of new and old models, it is usually the lowest quarter of annual production performance, so the impact is relatively limited.

TrendForce said in 2022, the first half of the year is mainly affected by China's lockdown and the Russia-Ukraine war, the second half is the inflation crisis, the annual production of about 1.333 billion, but if China continues to dynamic zero policy to the third quarter, coupled with inflation, energy shortage, the global smartphone market may face downward pressure.

The continued sharp decline in the production of consumer electronics such as smartphones has slowed down the demand for mobile phone chips and related components, and promoted the structural adjustment on the demand side, enabling fabs to free up more capacity for chips in automotive electronics, industrial control and other fields, alleviating the shortage of chips in various fields.

"The worst of the protracted semiconductor shortage may be over, at least not getting worse. "Some companies have seen chip supply improve recently."

The average global chip lead time, or the time from order to delivery, was 27.1 weeks in May, a record high but roughly unchanged from 27 weeks in April, according to research by market analyst Susquehanna Financial Group. The last time the delivery cycle was flat or slightly shortened was in January 2022, it said.

Company-specific data is skewed to the downside, with about 60 percent of chip companies having shorter delivery cycles, Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland said in a Tuesday note. China's lockdown measures and the ongoing disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war have not resulted in significantly longer delivery times.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas also said in a note that strong contract factory shipments, a slowdown in the consumer electronics market and the resumption of production in China could help ease the chip shortage sooner than expected.

It noted that while the situation remained fluid, the chronic global shortage of automotive chips may be nearing a solution, based on data from automakers and suppliers.

A new report from Supplyframe Commodity IQ suggests stable supply won't come until the first half of next year, earlier than the middle of next year as previously reported.